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Containing Epidemic Outbreaks by Message-Passing Techniques

机译:通过消息传递技术遏制疫情暴发

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摘要

The problem of targeted network immunization can be defined as the one of finding a subset of nodes in a network to immunize or vaccinate in order to minimize a tradeoff between the cost of vaccination and the final (stationary) expected infection under a given epidemic model. Although computing the expected infection is a hard computational problem, simple and efficient mean-field approximations have been put forward in the literature in recent years. The optimization problem can be recast into a constrained one in which the constraints enforce local mean-field equations describing the average stationary state of the epidemic process. For a wide class of epidemic models, including the susceptible-infected-removed and the susceptible-infected-susceptible models, we define a message-passing approach to network immunization that allows us to study the statistical properties of epidemic outbreaks in the presence of immunized nodes as well as to find (nearly) optimal immunization sets for a given choice of parameters and costs. The algorithm scales linearly with the size of the graph, and it can be made efficient even on large networks. We compare its performance with topologically based heuristics, greedy methods, and simulated annealing on both random graphs and real-world networks.
机译:有针对性的网络免疫问题可以定义为在网络中找到一个节点子集进行免疫或疫苗接种,以最大程度降低疫苗接种成本与特定流行模型下的最终(固定)感染之间的权衡。尽管计算预期的感染是一个困难的计算问题,但是近年来文献中已经提出了简单有效的平均场近似。可以将优化问题重铸成一个受约束的约束,在约束约束中约束将强制执行描述疾病流行过程的平均平稳状态的局部均值方程。对于广泛的流行病模型,包括易感性感染去除和易感性感染易感性模型,我们定义了一种用于网络免疫的消息传递方法,该方法可让我们研究存在免疫后的流行病暴发的统计特征节点,并针对给定的参数和成本选择(几乎)最佳免疫设置。该算法随图的大小线性缩放,即使在大型网络上也可以使其高效。我们将其性能与基于拓扑的试探法,贪婪方法以及随机图和真实网络上的模拟退火进行了比较。

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